Has Global Warming Reached a Tipping Point?
Everything I have read, heard or learned about global warming refers to a trigger point, beyond which, even herculean efforts will be naught but a mote in a hurricane. All of the computer simulations I'm aware of confirm this.
I understand that many people believe that global warming is pretty much bologna but the evidence is very much to the contrary. Many of the naysayers have axes to grind. That does not surprise anyone. They have stockholders to answer to and so deliver the corporate line that keeps the profit up regardless of the consequences. They figure that given enough time engineers and scientists will figure out something to save the planet so that they can mindlessly squander now. They are not only stripping their children and grandchildren of their inheritance of a lush and beautiful planet (the only one we know of in the known universe), they are also condemning their progeny to a life of misery, famine and unimaginable suffering. All that we have created as a culture will be lost.
On the other hand there are reputable scientists who are learned and whose opinion counts for something who believe it will not come to pass. They often say that this is just a natural cycle we are going through and in 10,000 years we'll be back to normal. The Earth has gone through many such cycles with concomitant fluctuations in temperature, carbon dioxide and methane concentrations. Sea levels have, risen and fallen, polar ice has increased and decreased and there has probably been more or less ozone. However, we are here now as a species, we are polluting the planet heavily and the evidence shows that not only that it is changing faster than it ever has before but we now know about the tripping point and how close we are to it
Any scientist worth his salt can propose a theory but must consider the consequences of being wrong. I believe global warming is here, is a very serious problem and it may already be too late. If I am wrong and we are simply going though the consequences of natural cycle our civilization and culture will survive. I hope I am wrong but I have lost faith in our government or corporate America to act in the best interest of the future.
If it is real and we are not past the tripping, any plan that phases bad behavior out over many years is too long. It must happen now! This is not a situation where we can say "Oops, guess we were wrong. Let's go back and fix that."
If it is real and we are past the tripping point, it's over. Turn out the lights. Have all the sex you want but use a condom or you'll damn your great grandchildren to unadulterated hell. Not much of a legacy, is it?
So is it real or not. I believe it is real but like everyone else I don't know. I don't believe God will step in and say "There, there, don't worry I'll fix everything, sleep tight and it will all be gone in the morning." What I do know with every fiber of my being is that if there are two paths to take, where you could take either but one has overwhelmingly dire consequences and the other may or may not, which is the rational path to take? Why am I not hearing from those who do not believe global warming is a serious issue, saying "I don't believe it is but why don't we clean up our planet just in case I'm wrong?" How could that possibly be a bad decision?
~~~~~~~ Rant over ~~~~~~~
I haven't practiced any real science for years but Dilip Bhadra (see http://tinyurl.com/6ym656), who is a member of a discussion group I belong to, does and has some words for you that are well researched and thoroughly thought out. Please do me the courtesy of reading his short essay reprinted below by permission. It is also attached if you prefer it that way.
Oh and if you ask "What can I do?" my answer is "I don't know. Follow your heart. You know the consequences of doing nothing." You've just read part of what I'm doing.
Sincerely,
Dave out
~~~~~~~~~~~
HAS GLOBAL WARMING REACHED A TIPPING POINT?
In light of some recent scientific information related to the global greenhouse effect, one may conclude that some of the irreversible phenomena that the researchers discussed have already started to happen in various parts of the planet. Recent measurements indicate that the current concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is around 385 ppm (parts per million by volume) – well above the critical number of 350 ppm, below which things may remain under control. When the measured value exceeds that number, the possibility increases for a number of irreversible turning points (or tripping points with no return) to be activated. Of these, the scientists think that a number of items are already occurring in the real world. Some examples are: massive sea level rise, the coral reef tragedy, the pine tree catastrophe in Yellowstone National Park, the oyster bed decimation, and the huge change in rainfall patterns around the globe. We will be discussing some of these examples a little later.
In addition to the examples given above, an anomalously large rate of melting of the arctic ice has also been measured last summer. This may be the right opportunity to point out that the recent ice measurements indicate a substantial rise in CO2 concentration. The present rate of rise of the concentration of CO2 is about twice that of only two decades ago, during the 1980’s. One also learns that the atmospheric methane (CH4) density, quite unexpectedly is also rising. It has been conjectured that the increase in CH4 density will lead to anomalous melting of polar ice and permafrost, which in turn will lead to the bubbling forth of trapped CH4 in the ground. In the stage in which CO2 concentration is about 350 ppm or under, the corresponding CH4 density seems to remain below a critical onset level. We need to get down to 350 ppm of CO2 as soon as possible.
But that is not the way some countries look at global warming – China is building more power plants and producing more energy-intensive commodities, India is building more power plants and producing small cars that more of its people will be able to afford to buy and use, American TV soon will become large enough to be able to depict real life-size objects on the screen and which will consume enormous amounts of power, etc.
Scientists warn that if we want to maintain a planet like the one we are on we should act now, otherwise it will be too late. We have billions of people that live on highly flood-prone shore lines, and we have ever-more vulnerable forests. For example, beetles have been recently found to kill 10 times more trees than only a decade ago, and in northern Canada, more forest is being lost to the beetles as the temperature there warms up. This will create more CO2 for the atmosphere and may prevent Canada from conforming to the Kyoto protocol. Alberta’s tar sands are also gearing up to provide oil for U.S. consumption, thereby further reducing forested areas by a significant amount and increasing atmospheric CO2 even more.
The Coral Reefs and Ocean Acidification
One example of irreversible phenomenon is the coral reef tragedy. Without our realizing it, an ominous unfolding of events is occurring underneath the ocean – the coral reefs around the world are disappearing.
Previously, the scientists did not realize how close to an irreversible state the world’s coral reefs are in. Computer modeling results indicate that by the year 2050, the oceans will become too acidic for coral reefs to grow. Too much acid results from atmospheric CO2 being absorbed by ocean water, preventing the corals from growing their calciferous skeletons.
Recently the scientists have also come to realize that rising temperature is maladaptive to the corals, but it is the acidification that is a far more serious problem. The corrosive effect of acidification is quite evident in the Great Barrier Reef (off Australia) where massive amounts of corals have experienced a 20% drop in growth within the last 15 years.
The question arises why we should care whether the coral reefs grow or not. They cover only about 0.1% of the earth’s surface. Compared to the world’s rain forests, that is minuscule. But several very significant considerations are involved in the survival of the corals:
1. Biodiversity – in this context, the coral reefs are the rain forests of the ocean. Nobody knows for sure, but scientists conjecture that there are about 1 million to 9 million species that reside in the coral. If the reefs disappear, about half the species that live there may also disappear.
2. Fisheries – coral reefs serve another important function, viz. fisheries based on the coral reefs produce about 25% of the fish that feed about a billion people.
3. Weather – coral reefs provide a critical protection mechanism throughout earth’s tropical regions. Without the presence of reef barriers, the coastal areas will become more vulnerable to the kind of devastation caused by hurricanes like Katrina.
4. Tourism – additionally, many countries in the Caribbean depend on tourism attracted by the corals as a part of their economy.
Enhanced ocean acidification due to the absorption of atmospheric CO2 by ocean water is thus already having an observable effect on coral reefs. The concentration of CO2 today is higher than 380 ppm, higher than any paleoclimactic measurements that scientists have carried out recently. Change in the atmospheric CO2 content is about 20 to 30 times higher than most of the changes seen during the past 400,000 years. The IPCC (the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change), which keeps tabs on global warming, predicts that the CO2 concentration will rise to about 450 ppm in this century unless we lower our fossil fuel consumption promptly. This bodes a catastrophe for the corals, the fish, and us.
Yellowstone Park and Cascading Effects
The cascading effects of global warming on the natural world have already been put into action. It has been found that global climate change in Yellowstone National Park has affected the park’s animals and plants in ways that raise questions about their survival. As an example, consider the whitebark pine beetles. Before bears start their hibernation phase, they attempt to fatten themselves up by consuming the nuts or seeds from whitebark pines.
The whitebark pine grows primarily in relatively high altitudes where the cooler temperatures protect them from their infamous visitor, the pinebark beetle. Now, warmer temperatures have left the pines vulnerable to attack by these aggressive beetles, which bore into the trees. In colder weather, the beetles’ proliferation time is about two years. Warmer temperatures enable the beetles to develop in only one year. In Yellowstone, the beetles killed an estimated 30,000 acres of whitebark pine during the five years between 2000 and 2005. At this rate, the whitebark pines of the western Rocky Mountains will become extinct in about a decade. Also, hotter temperatures in the mountains will lead to smaller snow pack, which leads to reduced water flow in streams and rivers. This will mean the eventual death of the fish, and also the bugs that the fish eat will die, and the phytoplankton that the bugs feed on will die as well. Finally, the entire ecosystem dies.
This is not all. As the drought and the early snow pack melting create abnormally hot summertime conditions, the chances of intense megafires increase, along with its frequency of occurrence.
The Oyster Beds and Thermophilic Bacteria
Another warning from Mother Nature again comes from the sea. There exists a mysterious oyster blight in which the young are dying as the water along the Pacific Coast of the U.S. gets warmer.
For decades, the hatcheries on the Pacific Coast have enjoyed a tremendous crop of delicious oysters – such oysters resulting from the genetic modification and selection by scientists. The oyster bonanza that followed led it to be the number one aquaculture crop in the world, 4.5 million tons a year valued at about 3 billion dollars. With selective breeding and genetic ‘fingerprinting’, the scientists were working hard to develop a super species of oysters resistant to the summer mortality, trying to keep one step ahead of a warmer and more polluted planet.
But suddenly, unruly batches of bacterial blooms appeared to go on a killing spree on the West Coast, wiping out billions of oyster larvae. The brood stock program in Oregon was then shut down. This was during early 2005. Scientists eventually discovered who the culprit was. It is a strain of bacteria called Vibrio Tubiashii which is harmless to humans to humans but fatal to baby oysters. The blooms of the bacteria seem to be primarily located in warmer estuaries and the anoxic (oxygen-starved) “dead zones” that have showed up during the present decade off the coasts of Oregon and Washington. These bacteria have the advantage over other sea life in that it thrives in cold, anoxic dead zones, feasting on decaying plant and animal matter littering the sea floor. When the water wells up from the deep and brings the bacterium to the surface, it can switch survival strategies to survive in warm, well-oxygenated water. The dead larvae are telling us that there is something wrong with the coastal waters. We know that the coastal average temperature has gone up due to global warming, and this may have caused the irreversible trigger of exponentiating bacterial bloom.
Presently, finding a disease-resistant variant of the bacteria by manipulating its genetic code has moved to the top of the research effort. Another effort is to find a virus naturally occurring in the ocean water which would be an enemy of the bacteria. Finding such a microbe of the right kind could avoid an ecological disaster of monumental proportions to the oyster business. Saving the oysters has other beneficial effects, e.g., maintaining healthy coastal waters as the result of the oysters clearing the seawater of excess algae and nutrients. When oysters disappear, as they did in Chesapeake Bay, an estuary’s water can turn murky and foul.
A few months ago, a mysterious ailment wiped out almost all of the harvest for Europe’s biggest producer and consumer of oysters, the French. Oysters generally live 2 to 3 years, which means that the French will have oysters this winter and the next, but it will be a different story in the year 2010.
French scientists have a number of suspects in this case: a virus or a toxic algae or climate change that has made the waters unusually warm and deadly to the planktons that oysters eat. It also could be a combination of algae and warmer waters. It is also quite likely that the strain of bacteria that was found in the U.S. west coast, especially in the warmer water estuaries and the anoxic dead-zones that have developed off the coast of Oregon and Washington, is the same microbe that is responsible for the French oyster disaster.
Ecosystems Out of Balance
These are the leading edges of the impending catastrophe resulting in ecosystem collapse that will propagate through western North America and also the world for decades to come. This clearly reveals the criticality of the interaction between temperature and water in a system that is constantly trying to stay in some form of thermodynamic equilibrium.
The climate is changing more rapidly than at any time during recorded history. Global climate change is not a problem for the future, it is happening right now, and every year we wait, we are getting closer to the destiny that is being written by perhaps the most significant phenomena ever in human history.
Interestingly enough, most climate changes so far seem to be rather benign, even pleasant; e.g., an earlier spring, and a fall that comes later. It is only occasionally that a disturbing reminder about global warming comes through and affects the psyche of the average person; for example, last February about 150 square miles of Antarctica’s Wilkens Ice Shelf disintegrated. In this context, comments by NASA’s principal scientist James Hansen are highly significant: “Our home planet is dangerously near a tipping point where human-made greenhouse gases reach a level where major climate changes can proceed mostly under their own momentum… the upshot of the combination of inertia and feedbacks is that additional climate change is already in the pipeline; even if we stop increasing greenhouse gases today, more warming will occur.” The present CO2 level in the atmosphere, about 385 ppm, may already induce the atmosphere to cross into dangerous territory. The inertia is primarily endemic to the system. However, if the feedback parameters could be controlled via controlling the injection rate of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, then it is perhaps likely that one may be able to prevent the system from reaching the irreversible tipping point.
The Future
As we warm up our atmosphere, the planet is starting to take over the job for us. For instance, as the huge arctic ice melts, suddenly the large white surface that used to reflect back the incoming solar radiation into space has now turned to blue water which absorbs 80% of such heat (positive feedback). The Indian scientist, who on behalf of the IPCC accepted the 2008 Nobel Peace prize along with Al Gore, has said “If there is no action in the next 2 or 3 years, that’s just too late. What we do within the next 2 or 3 years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.” If we do everything right, the carbon emission is likely to fall quite rapidly and the oceans will start to absorb more CO2. Before the century is over, we may be back to the targeted goal of 350 ppm, and hopefully thereby avoid losing our entire protective ice sheet. We may then be able to stop just before going over the long vertical cliff, somewhat like that celebrated bird – the Roadrunner of cartoon fame.
But let us not forget the pursuing Coyote! Powerful forces have to come into play to turn the Coyote, the political juggernaut, around. Many experts have indicated a number of vital steps, which at the very least are absolutely necessary in the short run. We mention some of these essential steps:
1) Coal-fired power plants totally banned everywhere and the presently operating ones shut down – such plants, in global warming terminology, are as dangerous as nuclear meltdowns
2) Auto manufacturers making hybrids at a rapid rate – as if in wartime footing, as was done by the U.S. with tanks during WWII
3) Technically advanced countries sharing their technology and know-how with the poorest countries – giving the latter more dignified and uncomplicated lives without using fossil fuel
4) Trains being developed and installed as one of the major transportation modes in this country – already this trend is increasing as gasoline prices are rising
All this is very possible. But in the U.S., with the highest per capita consumption in the world, how much can we do, especially during a time when the president of the country is urging more oil digging in ANWR (Arctic National Wildlife Refuge), where the word ‘sacrifice’ reminds one of ‘sucker’, where words like ‘gas-tax holiday’ have entered the popular vocabulary, where power consumption is not only high but getting higher every year (an average family of 4 in San Diego today uses about 500 KWH of electricity per month!), and where the sense of happiness is directly proportional to the diagonal dimension of the TV screen. In such a situation, what can one do? We can do a lot. But we have to have a collective movement – we don’t have enough time to consider the “one bulb at a time” approach. And there is no one magic solution that will cure all. On the contrary, all solutions and approaches that can be meaningful must be used.
It has been suggested by various prominent people that the WWW is the proper kind of medium through which one may be able to develop a “collective consciousness”, a grass-roots universal effort. Perhaps this is our best hope, but do you think there will be time for such things, maybe between video games and watching porn on the internet?
D. K. Bhadra
8/22/08
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